DWR Estimates SWP Water Losses from Climate Crisis

  • by Department of Water Resources
  • Aug 1, 2024
  • Water News

SACRAMENTO — The Department of Water Resources on July 31 released its final 2023 State Water Project Delivery Capability Report, which presents a new and enhanced analysis of current and future expectations for the SWP water supply if no new adaptation actions are taken. According to the report, SWP delivery capability and reliability could be reduced as much as 23 percent in 20 years due to changing flow patterns and extreme weather shifts – underscoring the need for California to continue addressing the impacts of climate change and upgrading infrastructure.

A 23 percent decline would be equivalent to about 496,000 acre-feet a year, enough to supply 1,736,000 homes for a year. This reinforces the serious need for California to boost water supplies to account for any SWP losses in the coming years, including the Delta Conveyance Project, Sites Reservoir, desalination projects, and more.

“The analysis released today underscores the need to modernize and upgrade our aging infrastructure so we can capture water supplies when it’s wet,” said DWR Director Karla Nemeth. “The State Water Project service area amounts to the world’s eighth-largest economy and includes more than 8 million Californians living in disadvantaged communities. Modernizing the State Water Project is critical to delivering on the human right to water in California.”

Built in 1960, the SWP spans more than 700 miles throughout California and consists of canals, dams, reservoirs, pumping plants, and power plants that provide water to 27 million Californians and 750,000 acres of farmland. Several factors impact the SWP’s water delivery capability including California’s population, state legislation, environmental requirements, and potential changing climate resulting in varying hydrologic conditions.

“The SWP was designed for the climate of the 20th century when our precipitation fell as snow more reliably between October and May and we could capture that water effectively for future use,” said SWP Deputy Director John Yarbrough. “We need to continue to adapt and invest in the SWP, so that we can add flexibility and resilience for 21st century conditions and we can avoid these losses in reliability.”

The 2023 Delivery Capability Report introduces two new innovative approaches to characterize current climate change conditions and emphasizes the uncertainty in future climate change projections. The first is an approach to account for changes in operations from the climate change that has already occurred. The second is an approach for developing a range of future climate scenarios. Both additions have undergone independent peer review and are considered significant improvements over previous methods.

The Delivery Capability Report is used widely both within and outside the SWP for water supply planning. The information in these reports is a key component of the drought planning done by the SWP and is fundamental to the drought planning done by the public water agencies that receive SWP and Central Valley Project water. The report provides the information needed by these agencies to develop and manage their own water supply portfolios and is an important input for Sustainable Groundwater Management Plans, Urban Water Management Plans, Agricultural Water Management Plans, and Integrated Regional Water Management Plans.

These decreases in the availability of surface water deliveries can lead to supply shortages, an increase in groundwater demand, and reductions in available supplies to support groundwater replenishment. DWR’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Office will use the information in the report to update its existing climate change data and guidance that many Groundwater Sustainability Agencies used for their initial Plans. Similarly, DWR’s Water Use Efficiency Branch will be advising urban and agricultural water agencies to update their water budget assumptions based on these new assessments.

As part of the State’s long-term planning efforts, the SWP is also proactively developing a Climate Adaption Plan. The Adaptation Plan will incorporate key adaptation strategies, including the Delta Conveyance Project and opportunities for new and expanded storage both above and below ground. It will also build upon the analysis provided in the Delivery Capability Report and will be published later this year.

DWR is committed to supporting the State’s efforts to take an all-of-the-above approach to creating a resilient water supply system in the face of a changing climate. In addition to the Delta Conveyance Project, DWR is supporting efforts to advance Sites Reservoir, groundwater recharge, desalination, water recycling, and promoting continued water conservation.

DWR encourages all SWP water users and local groundwater sustainability agencies to take a collaborative and proactive approach while using the insights from this report for their own planning and adaptation investigations.

For more information, view the report.

Suggested Resources

15 RESOURCES prev next
Priority Issues Bulletin

Sorry, but only ACWA members have permission to view this content. Member login is required.

Outreach Handbook

Sorry, but only ACWA members have permission to view this content. Member login is required.

Comment Letter: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Updated Definition of “Waters of the United States” — Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-OW-2025-0322

To: Stacey Jensen, Office of Water, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Milton Boyd, Office of the Assistant Secretary of the […]

Resources to Help Members with Legislative Outreach, Public Education

Sorry, but only ACWA members have permission to view this content. Member login is required.

Comment Letter: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: PFAS Data Reporting and Recordkeeping Under TSCA — Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-OPPT-2020-0549

To: Megan Nelson, Office of Pollution Prevention and Toxics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Subject: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: PFAS Data […]

ACWA 2025 Fall Conference Presentations

Presentations from ACWA’s 2025 Fall Conference & Expo held December 2-4 in San Diego are available below. Please note that […]

ACWA Scholarship Toolkit for 2026-’27

Sorry, but only ACWA members have permission to view this content. Member login is required.

Federal Legislative Matrix

Sorry, but only ACWA members have permission to view this content. Member login is required.

Regulatory Roundup

The following document is released each month and includes policy updates from ACWA’s Regulatory Department. Click on the below link […]

Comment Letter: Comments on OEHHA’s First Public Review Draft Proposed Public Health Goal for 1,4-Dioxane in Drinking Water

Agency: Pesticide and Environmental Toxicology Branch, Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment, California Environmental Protection Agency Subject: Comments on OEHHA’s […]

ACWA 2025 Fall Conference Committee Meeting Resources

Resources for ACWA Committee Meetings held during ACWA’s 2025 Fall Conference & Expo are available below.  Agriculture Committee Agenda Resources: […]

2025 Summary of Legislation

Sorry, but only ACWA members have permission to view this content. Member login is required.

2025 Summary of Appellate

Sorry, but only ACWA members have permission to view this content. Member login is required.

Comment Letter: Draft TVA Scientific Basis Report

To: Ms. Courtney Tyler, Clerk to the Board, State Water Resources Control Board Subject: Draft TVA Scientific Basis Report Letter […]

Comment Letter: Call for Contributions in Support of Study on New Models and Approaches to Complement or Replace the Wildfire Fund

To: Tom Welsh, Chief Executive Officer, California Earthquake Authority Subject: Call for Contributions in Support of Study on New Models […]

Suggested News

15 Articles prev next
Western Water Board of Directors Confirms Officers to Continue Leadership

Western Municipal Water District’s (Western Water) Board of Directors has confirmed the continuation of its current officers with Director Laura […]

January 2026 Priority Issues Update Now Available

The January 2026 Priority Issues Update is now available online to members. The update is a summary of the latest […]

Moulton Niguel Water District Appoints Brian Parker to Board of Directors

The Moulton Niguel Water District Board of Directors has appointed longtime Laguna Niguel resident and Moulton Niguel ratepayer Brian Parker […]

MCWD Announces New Board Officers for 2026

Marina Coast Water District is proud to announce our newly elected Board President and Vice-President for 2026. As highly experienced officers, […]

Orange County Agencies Launch First AI Course for Water Professionals

A coalition of Orange County agencies is launching a groundbreaking online education program designed to equip Orange County water professionals […]

Foothill MWD Announces the Retirement of Board Member Richard Atwater

The Foothill Municipal Water District (FMWD or the District) announces the retirement of Richard Atwater from its Board of Directors, […]

Yuba Water Awards $1.9 Million in Grants, Names New Board Leadership

During its first meeting of the new year, the Yuba Water Agency Board of Directors selected new leadership and approved […]

DWA Board Elects 2026 Officers

At its January 6, 2026, meeting, the Desert Water Agency Board of Directors conducted its annual election of officers. Director […]

ACWA Resources Help Members with Legislative Outreach, Public Education

The California Legislature re-convened Jan. 5 for the second year of the 2025-’26 legislative session and ACWA distributed a toolkit […]

ACWA Statement on the Passing of Congressman LaMalfa

SACRAMENTO — The Association of California Water Agencies (ACWA) today issued a statement from Interim Executive Director Marwan Khalifa in […]

CENTRAL COAST WATER AUTHORITY APPOINTS PETER THOMPSON NEW EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR

BUELLTON – The Central Coast Water Authority (CCWA) Board of Directors is pleased to announce that Peter Thompson has been […]

Gary Arant Retires After Decades of Service to Valley Center Municipal Water District

VALLEY CENTER — After more than 52 years in the water and wastewater industry, Valley Center Municipal Water District’s long-serving […]

ACWA Selects Firm for Executive Director Recruitment

The ACWA Board of Directors has selected Bob Murray & Associates to lead the new recruitment process for hiring the […]

Late December Storms Deliver Much-Needed Snowpack and Water Supply

SACRAMENTO – The Department of Water Resources (DWR) today conducted the first snow survey of the season at Phillips Station. The […]

Promote ACWA’s Scholarship Opportunities Now

ACWA has updated its Scholarships Toolkit to help member agencies promote various ACWA scholarship opportunities for the 2026-’27 academic year. […]